Africa Speaks Reasoning Forum

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/datablog/2010/apr/23/factfile-uk-population-immigration-race-marriage (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/datablog/2010/apr/23/factfile-uk-population-immigration-race-marriage)



When John Maynard Keynes surveyed the world in the 1930s, his concern was that Britain, then the greatest empire in the world, faced having too few people. Today the issue is of over- rather than under-population. By 2050 Britain for the first time in history will become the most populous nation in western Europe.

The last three decades have seen an upward swing in British women's fertility - who thanks to emancipation and technology have children in their thirties and forties. Since 2001, Britons have more children but have fewer marriages.

Marriage is not for life, but on average a decade in Britain. More births are out of wedlock. Abortion, legalised in 1967, has risen slowly - although this in part reflects the increase in fertility. Changes in the law and the labour market have seen women have the number of children that they say they want. This is a trend. Fathers have also seen paternity rights and responsibilities become part of public debate.

Economics as ever drives decisions on who lives where. No surprise perhaps the south east boomed. If trends continue Milton Keynes will probably become a bigger city than Liverpool and Nottingham by the middle of the century. What was not considered in the past was the inevitability of population ageing - as life expectancy improves. By 2050 more than half of Britons will be fifty or older. Today this elder generation controls four-fifths the wealth of the country. This intergenerational conflict is likely to be central to the politics of the coming century.

Even more combustible is the issue of ethnicity and race as mass migration becomes part of global life. Immigration ebbs and flows but the direction is unmistakable: Britain will become more diverse. Islam is the country's fastest growing religion. There are more Hindus than Jews. At present 6m people do not describe themselves as white in England and Wales. The number of women of child-bearing age born abroad has risen and are now responsible for 20% of all births in this country. Our changing complexion is in part a legacy of Empire, Europe and Emigration to the New World. The past cannot be wished away anymore than the future.